Seeing What's Next: Using the Theories of Innovation to Predict Industry Change

According to Christensen, "While the two previous books were aimed at managers [in italics] inside firms who wanted to defend again or attack with a disruption, Seeing What's Next is written for those who watch industries from the [in italics] outside, and who must make important decisions based on what they see. It will help executives, analysts, investors, and others who have a stake in a specific industry to evaluate the impact of innovations, the outcomes of competitive battles, and the moves made by individual firms -- and to make smarter business decisions, forecasts, and stock recommendations based on those evaluations. The goal here [in Seeing What's Next] is to dramatically increase the odds of getting things right in the arena where wrong decisions could be devastating."

The authors carefully organize their material as follows:

In Part I, "How to Use Theory to Analyze," they identify the "signals of change" which indicate where the best opportunities are; explain how to size up competitors; how to identify which strategic choices are of greatest importance; and then explain how nonmarket factors influence innovation.

Then in Part II, "Illustrations of Theory-Based Analysis," they apply various TBA tools when examining the future of education, aviation, semiconductors, healthcare, and telecommunications; using the same tools, they also assess strategies for both corporations and countries. Then in the "Conclusions" section, they step back and recap where they have taken their reader, suggest areas for further investigation, and provide some final thoughts. I especially appreciate the Appendix in which the authors provide a summary of the book's key concepts.

All of the most important points made in this book help us to understand both the opportunities and (yes) the perils of disruptive innovation. They include: disruption is a process, NOT an event; disruption is a relative phenomenon in that what is disruptive to one company may be sustaining to another; different, even radical technology does NOT equal disruptive; disruptive innovations are NOT limited to high-tech markets. Re this last point, the authors carefully explain that disruption can occur in any product or service market and can even help to explain competition among national economies. (Please see Chapter Chapter 9, pages 207-223). Another substantial value-added benefit of this book is derived from the generously annotated "Notes" at the end of each chapter. Together, these sections (all by themselves) are worth far more the cost of this book.

Thus, in a single volume, the authors guide and inform decision-makers in all manner of organizations as they embark on the three-part process by which to (1) identify signals of change, (2) evaluate competitive, head-to-head battles between companies loosely classified as "attackers" and "incumbents" (please see the Glossary), (3) formulate appropriate strategic choices that can influence the outcome of competitive battles, and (4) meanwhile establish and then sustain an effective relationship between innovation and nonmarket forces such as government regulation. Christensen, Anthony, and Roth are to be congratulated for what I consider to be a brilliant achievement. Reluctant as I am to predict anything, I feel certain that Seeing What's Next will become a business book "classic."


Insightful!   July 14, 2005
 10 out of 12 found this review helpful

Clayton M. Christensen's first book, 'The Innovator's Dilemma,' was a work of impressive insight and originality. His second, 'The Innovator's Solution,' was somewhat less insightful but added a necessary extension to the first by telling readers how they might begin to extricate themselves from the dilemma of industry disruption caused by an upstart innovation. The current book is a dense, harder to read compilation of the first two books, with added theoretical insights. Christensen and co-authors Scott D. Anthony and Erik A. Roth tell readers how to use theories of innovation to predict change. We applaud the effort. Don't miss the helpful appendix that summarizes the previous two books.