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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Penguin Books Ltd
Category: Book

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Rating: 3.5 out of 5 stars

24 reviews
Sales Rank: 66

Media: Paperback
Pages: 400
Shipping Weight (lbs): 0.7
Dimensions (in): 7.7 x 5 x 1

ISBN: 0141034599
EAN: 9780141034591
ASIN: 0141034599

Publication Date: February 28, 2008
Availability: Usually dispatched within 1-2 business days
Shipping: International shipping available
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Customer Reviews: Read 19 more reviews...

5 out of 5 stars

don't be arrogant July 24, 2008
0 out of 1 found this review helpful

Let me share with you a book that I'm reading and that has pleased me particularly. It is "The Black Swan" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, born in Lebanon in Amioun (which is not irrelevant, as we shall see) survivor of the civil war. The author's thesis is that the future is completely unpredictable, all the forecasts that we are bombarded with in our day-to-day are nothing more than mistakes to want to confusing us, to say the better. While this statement appears trivial, it is not. Just think of the forecasts we hear every day, such as: The oil price will not to rise Inflation this year will be... (this is used very well by you know who) Human life will have an average duration more than 150 years in the century XXII Finally, You see what is my point. And it is not difficult for you to find dozens more in a few minutes. This inability to predict is innate to humans, to life as it is, and the extreme complexity of the world in which we live. A consequence of this bad predictatableness is the application of scientific methods (such as the hard science of physics and mathematics) to the economy, philosophy, history, education (this was by me) and all the "science" social in general. They want to be what they can not be, with methods that are not appliable, where they could follow the path of narrative that they followed for a long time with no spectacular results (for the media society in which we live) but much more reasonable and true. Another curiousity is that the specialists made more mistakes in their forecasts. The author proves that any taxi driver can better predict the progress of the share price than a broker after applying mathematical methods that have the right to Nobel prize, for example. The author in his book dismantle the academic arrogance, the wisdom of experts and does not it, of course, in a surfacial way. It presents data and studies and practical bases its argument in their personal life as it was for many years consultant to financial institutions famous, participating in "task forces" the U.S. government, having in its curriculum advanced training in mathematics, philosophy and economy and is (or was), in the academic fields. I mean, he does not speak from above like certain people we know who have commented on teachers and their work, without ever having put their feet the classroom or in a long time not doing so because they have managed to jump-time in that profession that "do not do anything", "has been lots of holidays" and whose practitioners are the real culprits of the "state of the nation." Let me quote an excerpt from the book rather significant about the report that: "... The idea of Popper has to do with the financial constraints at the prediction of historical events and the need to reduce areas' soft ', as the history and social science at a level slightly above the aesthetics and entertainment, as if FOR collecting of butterflies or currencies. (Popper and received a Viennese classical education, not reached that far, I, yes. I am of Amioun.) What we are referring here as soft sciences historical studies are dependent on narrative. The central argument is that of Popper, to provide historical events, it is necessary to provide technological innovation, which is essentially unpredictable. (...) If I expect to expect something at some point in the future, then I have something in this. (...) If it had succeeded profetize the invention of the wheel, already know their appearance, thus already know build a wheel, or said otherwise, to understand the future down to the point of it, it is necessary to incorporate elements of the future. Before the Internet, who could predict the future? Such changes were imposed by it? (...) " One of the features that pleases me most is how the author clearity presents its arguments, without the prisioning of political correctness (the fact that Lebanon is not negligible and may prove to read the book), calling the "horse by the names ", And doing it with a fluid written , captivating, but without losing accuracy. The author is in school empirical sceptical, as opposed to the bench of teoretichals that produce and deliver the biggest nonsense that we see all times in the media. Indeed this is the second Nassim as bad, that he no longer watch TV and read newspapers, since it only contributes to the "disinformation", which marries its thesis that the more "informed" by the media are less we have become familiar, though this counter the "common sense". But what pleased me most was the scene that Taleb reports when, after years of working in a financial company, to present its evaluator, it tears the assessment ahead, even without seeing the result, because it was the author of a second farce, a thing without feet or head, since, at work exerting results depend, and almost exclusively, by chance, of luck, rather than any demonstrable ability in particular, at least the parameters that were used to assess and It seems to exercise the functions of day-to-day. It seems that he was the only crazy by those who had sides... This reminds me of anything, and it is clear that I am sorry for not having the financial conditions, the will, the courage to finally do the same. But it may be that until there is also crazy. It is that from September I will also be put in a vortex of weirdness. Hugs to all. PS: Read the book because this review is far from doing justice to its deserved high quality.

3 out of 5 stars

Just a rehash of John Stuart Mill July 17, 2008
0 out of 1 found this review helpful

an important time for this book, valuable for businesspeople to read before making decisions. throw away the spreadsheets and open up your minds.
Only worth 3* as most of the work is just a rehash of John Stuart Mill in the 19th Century (who first wrote about Black Swans). The author takes credit for more original thinking than he has actually done..

1 out of 5 stars

Over-sized ego and rambling July 16, 2008
1 out of 1 found this review helpful

NNT definitely has an over-sized ego. He says he found it easy to write - mainly becuase little care and effort seemed to go into it. He appears to have decided that we are only capable of reading half-a-page at a time, so the book comes over as hideously disjointed - no argument is developed to a conclusion.
Got bored out of my brain, reading his ego pieces and invented characters.
I think Monty Python did it better: 'No-one expects the unexpected'
Just don;t expect anything much from this book

5 out of 5 stars

Fantastic book July 8, 2008
1 out of 1 found this review helpful

A great read, engagingly written. He is a little arrogant and clearly likes to demonstrate his intelligence however recovers his humility with a wonderful sign off to the book. Enjoy.

3 out of 5 stars

Black Swan, Dying Duck July 2, 2008
2 out of 2 found this review helpful

This book was actually an enjoyable read. It is witty and humorous, though, as other reviewers point out, Taleb is basically infatuated with himself. But in spite of enjoying the intellectual challenges he throws at you throughout the book, I have to say that there is little real substance here. Why? Because his black swan is a dying duck. He argues that there is such a class of events as black swans - that is to say totally unpredicted events. But that "class" of events doesn't exist. Each one event that is unpredicted is a unique event and shares no common features with other such events apart from unexpectedness. He argues that the future can't be predicted accurately (well we all know that, and all too well, often from bitter experience). So, he argues, planning is virtually futile, because plans can't take account of the totally unexpected. Nothing new there, but applying his own technique of reverse-logic, if a plan is blown off course after 6 years, by an unexpected event, we can say that the plan was accurate enough to work from for 6 years. Is 6 years of workable planning worthless because in the 7th year the plan comes unstuck?

If his message only boils down to a warning not to assume that forecasts will be highly accurate for an indefinite period, then there is nothing new here - how many of us trust the weather forecast for the day after tomorrow? For those readers interested in economics Tony Lawson has done a much more thorough explanation of why economic forecasting is futile (if we expect forecasts to turn out to be accurate). According to Lawson, attempting to forecast is a highly valuable way of learning something about the economic forces that are at work in society, even when the forecasts go wrong. And Taleb's bias against governments and government plans is ridiculous. Governments don't need to know everything about everything in order to plan to build a bridge or a hospital.